Key players in the battery industry as well as consultancy companies presented their projections for the EV battery market by 2015 and 2020 at this year's Advanced Automotive Battery Conference in Mainz, Germany, June 6-10, 2011. Market forecasts for HEVs, PHEVs, EVs and their batteries were offered during the Advanced Automotive Battery Technology, Application and Market (AABTAM) Symposium on 8 June, chaired by AAB President Menahem Anderman. As might be expected, the research institutes and consultancies included in the symposium showed considerable differences in their projections regarding battery market trends for the next decade. Advanced Automotive Batteries (AAB) expects the overall EV battery market to be worth about $6 (€4.15) billion by 2015 and $11 (€7.60) billion come 2020. Sanyo is expecting to be the market leader with about $510 (€353) million turnover, followed suit by AESC (Automotive Energy Supply Corporation), a joint venture established in 2007 by Nissan and NEC, with projections of around $475 (€328) million. The market for EV battery cells would represent $2,6 (€1.8) billion, this time with AESC as the market leader ($400 (€277) million expected turnover) and Sanyo second (calculated turnover of $170 (€118) million by 2015).
There was more unity among the expert speakers on developments of battery costs. It was agreed that this will greatly depend on production volumes and material prices. Overall, a drop in battery price of some 40% by 2020 from 2010 levels can be expected.
With regard to batteries for PHEVs, HEVs and EVs, Menahem Anderman siad: “If fuel saving benefit is not more than 15-20%, then the consumer is not willing to pay for an HEV”, adding that “the trend is NMC prismatic metal cell configuration for EV/PHEV”. Anderman expects almost all EVs and HEVs to be powered with Li-ion batteries by 2015, as Toyota has made the commitment to use NiMH until then, representing more than 70% of the current HEV market. Regarding Li-ion HEV battery suppliers, AAB expects Sanyo to be the market leader with a turnover of $185 (€128) millions, followed by Hitachi with $120 (€83) million and A123 Systems with $95 (65.7) million. The overall Li-ion HEV battery market is expected to weigh around $750 (€519) million by 2015. More on the AABC Conference presentations regarding market sizw and cost development has been summarised by cars21.com, official media partner of the conference.